Analysis:
Compiling a dataset showing China’s vehicle production and estimated sales value across four key types: ICE, BEV, PHEV, and FCEV (hydrogen fuel cell vehicles), spanning from 2015 to 2024.
Here are the high-level takeaways:
- ICE vehicle production peaked in 2017 and has been declining steadily since.
- BEVs and PHEVs surged, especially after 2020, boosted by strong state incentives.
- FCEVs remained niche until a recent inflection point: commercial hydrogen vehicle sales grew sharply in 2023 and 2024.
2024 sales breakdown:
| Powertrain | Estimated Sales Volume | Average Unit Price (USD) | Estimated Revenue (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | ~19 million | $15,000 | $285 billion |
| BEVs | 7.5 million | $25,000 | $187.5 billion |
| PHEVs | 3.5 million | $28,000 | $98 billion |
| FCEVs | 7,000 | $80,000 | $560 million |
While FCEVs are still tiny in volume, their commercial role—buses, trucks, industrial fleets—is strategic. The infrastructure is growing quietly but significantly in China, supported by state subsidies, pilot cities, and long-term decarbonisation goals.
Why Hydrogen? Why Now?
Hydrogen offers several benefits where battery electric vehicles fall short:
- Faster refuelling times compared to EV charging.
- Longer range, especially critical for commercial and freight transport.
- Lower impact on rare earth mineral demand compared to lithium-ion batteries.
China’s strategy? Use BEVs for consumer adoption while developing hydrogen ecosystems for industrial strength, logistics, and global leadership in clean energy technology.
Meanwhile, in the West…
Western governments and automakers are largely focusing on electric cars—Tesla, Rivian, Ford’s EV lineups, and Europe’s push for EV-only sales by 2035. Hydrogen remains sidelined, seen as futuristic or cost-prohibitive.
But if China builds a dominant lead in hydrogen fuel cell manufacturing, supply chains, and infrastructure, it could define the next frontier of clean transport—especially in sectors where batteries fall short.
The Real Power Play
This isn’t just about vehicles. It’s about energy leadership, supply chain control, and industrial dominance. As Western economies pour billions into EV rollouts, China is hedging—and building leverage in what may be the more scalable, sustainable long-term solution.
Hydrogen might not replace batteries. But it could complement them, and in key areas—outperform them.
Conclusion: China’s Strategic Bet
China isn’t discarding EVs. It’s already mastered them. But now, it’s building out hydrogen as the next chapter. Quietly. Systematically. And perhaps ahead of the curve.
The West may be winning the EV PR war—but China could be winning the transport revolution itself.
Exec summary
China isn’t just competing in the global electric vehicle race—it’s already pivoting to what might come next: hydrogen. New data shows that sales of hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles in China surpassed the entire world’s fuel-cell electric car purchases in 2024.
Over the past decade, China’s vehicle production has steadily transitioned from internal combustion engines (ICE) toward clean energy alternatives, especially battery electric vehicles (BEVs). But while the West focuses on EVs for passenger use, China is scaling hydrogen in commercial logistics and heavy transport. This article examines 10 years of production and sales data, revealing China’s strategic edge—and what the West may be missing.
Data sources
Hydrogen Insight Sales of hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles in China now exceed global purchases of fuel-cell cars
International Energy Agency (IEA) – Global EV Outlook 2024
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)
http://www.caam.org.cn
Statista – Electric Vehicles in China
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) https://theicct.org
China Daily – China stepping up development of hydrogen vehicles
